Brad Keselowski has the inside track to his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship leading Jimmie Johnson by 20 points entering Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. His sixth-place finish at Phoenix International Raceway, coupled with Johnson’s 32nd, significantly reversed the five-time champion’s previous seven-point advantage. Keselowski clinches the championship with a finish of 15th or better; or 16th and at least one lap led; or 17th and the most laps led, even if Johnson wins and leads the most laps.

But the standings may be closer than they look. While Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of five tracks on which Johnson hasn’t won, the Californian finished a pressure-filled second in 2010 when another championship was on the line. The performance allowed Johnson to erase a 15-point deficit (roughly four points under the current system) to Denny Hamlin and claim his fifth championship. Johnson is one of just four drivers who trailed entering the season’s final race to win the title. The others were Tony Stewart (-3 points, to Carl Edwards, 2011); Alan Kulwicki (-30 points or about seven points under the current system, to Davey Allison, 1992) and Richard Petty (-2 points, to Darrell Waltrip, 1979).

Keselowski, on the other hand, will be making just his fifth NASCAR Sprint Cup start at Homestead-Miami Speedway where his best finish is 13th in 2010. He placed 20th or worse in his other three races.