Hamlin, Pocono A Perfect Statistical Match — But Watch Out For Kurt Busch, Stewart

The last trip the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series took to Pocono must have felt like a complete nightmare for Denny Hamlin.

He finished 23rd, a respectable enough result – if it weren’t Hamlin at Pocono.

Hamlin has owned Pocono in his short three-year career. Ever since his first trip around the quirky and unique tri-oval, Hamlin was a natural.

In his first Pocono trip in 2006, he won the pole – then the race. In his second trip, he did the exact same thing.

Hamlin’s first five Pocono races all resulted in top-10 finishes, and four of the five were top-three finishes.

Only in last August’s Pennsylvania 500 did Hamlin struggle, and the statistics suggest that his run was much better than his result.

In that race, Hamlin had a Driver Rating of 89.5 and an Average Running Position of 11th. So it’s no wonder that Hamlin has the top statistics at Pocono – by far.

In his six-race Pocono career, Hamlin has a series-best Average Running Position of 6.5, a series-best Driver Rating of 123.6 and a series-best Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 90.6%. He is also second in Fastest Laps Run with 201, eight behind leader Kurt Busch.

Busch, owner of two perfect Driver Ratings at Pocono (in his 2005 and 2007 victories), is Hamlin’s prime threat this weekend.

Always strong at Pocono, Busch should continue his “comeback” season. At Pocono, Busch has a Driver Rating of 106.8 (second-best), an Average Running Position of 10.1 (second) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 74.0% (fifth).

Also an intriguing choice this weekend is Tony Stewart, who needed only 13 races to reach one driver-owner milestone. This past weekend in Dover, he became the first driver-owner to lead the points since Alan Kulwicki on the last day of the 1992 season. Now he looks to be the first driver-owner to win a race since Ricky Rudd in 1998.

Pocono statistically fits Stewart’s style. He has a Driver Rating of 102.4 (third), an Average Running Position of 10.9 (fourth) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 78.3% (second).