Numbers say Hamlin loves Richmond, but still no wins

Denny HamlinRace No. 26, the final race of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series “regular season,” is an anticipated event for every single driver in the series.

But it’s something else entirely for Denny Hamlin.

“Anticipation” fails to capture Hamlin’s emotions come race time at Richmond International Raceway.

Hamlin grew up in the .75-mile track’s shadows, and as such, pines for a victory at his very local short track. Literally, a NASCAR Sprint Cup win at Richmond is at the top of his wish list.

He has come close a number of times, but has yet to break through to Victory Lane.

Oddly, his best Richmond performance ended his worst Richmond finish.

In last season’s May Richmond race, Hamlin had the dominant car – by far. He led an astounding 381 of 400 laps. But a late-race tire problem killed his day, ended the dream and resulted in a 24th-place finish. Still, he finished up that race with a number of race-best statistics, including a Driver Rating of 129.1.

Additionally, he had an Average Running Position of 2.3 and 104 Fastest Laps Run, which are personal bests at Richmond’s action-packed oval for Hamlin.

The numbers speak for themselves. In all seven of his Richmond races, Hamlin has led at least four laps. He owns series-best stats in Driver Rating (116.9), Average Running Position (5.1) and average Green Flag Speed (117.741 mph). He also has tremendous numbers in Fastest Laps Run (244, third-most) and Laps in the Top 15 (2,754/98.0%).

The trend of hard luck finishes continued into this season for Hamlin at Richmond. Statistically, the last Richmond race was Hamlin’s second-best. But in the end, he suffered his third-worst finish (14th). The problem this time: a bad pit stop.

His crew had a problem with the lug nuts, causing Hamlin to lose a number of positions on pit road.

But on the track, he was near-flawless.

In that race, Hamlin had a Driver Rating of 126.5, an Average Running Position of 3.5, 43 Fastest Laps Run and a race-high 148 laps led.

Hamlin’s prior success at Richmond, combined with his current momentum make Hamlin a sure favorite this weekend.

Coming into this weekend’s race, Hamlin has scored five consecutive top-10 finishes (and seven of the last eight races were top-10 runs).

Over that span, Hamlin has a Driver Rating of 112.5.

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